President Donald Trump holds narrow, negligible leads among likely voters in Arizona and Florida, according to new surveys of the pair of swing states he seized in 2016.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday reported that 49 percent of Arizona likely voters surveyed prefer Trump and 48 percent back Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden — an advantage of 1 percentage point that falls within the survey’s margin of error.
Another Post-ABC poll has Trump ahead of Biden by 4 percentage points in Florida, with the Republican incumbent earning 51 percent support among likely voters surveyed to the former vice president’s 47 percent. That 4-point edge similarly falls within the margin of error for the poll’s Florida data.
But the polls of the Sun Belt battlegrounds, conducted by Langer Research Associates, show Biden slightly ahead of Trump among registered voters surveyed in both states: 49-47 percent in Arizona and 48-47 percent in Florida — leads that fall within the surveys’ margins of error.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of Arizona surveys conducted from Sept. 4-20, Biden remains 4.1 percentage points ahead of Trump in general election polling. The RealClearPolitics average of Florida polling, which includes surveys from Aug. 28-Sept. 20, shows Biden leading Trump by 1 percentage point.
Trump won Arizona’s 11 Electoral College votes by 4.1 percentage points in 2016. BiIll Clinton, who won Arizona in 1996, was the most recent Democratic presidential nominee to carry the state.
Trump also won Florida in 2016, securing the 29 Electoral College votes from the nation’s largest swing state by 1.3 percentage points. Florida has been carried by the eventual winner of each of the last six presidential elections.
The Post-ABC polls were conducted Sept. 15-20 — surveying 765 Florida registered voters, including 613 likely voters; and 701 Arizona registered voters, including 579 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points among registered and likely voters in Arizona, as well as among likely voters in Florida. The margin of error is 4 points among Florida registered voters.